Sunday, June 24, 2012

recent research

This week's picks via Kevin Lewis:

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

the wisdom of heuristics

Yesterday my friend Bernstein was wondering why it is that modern day humans seem so bad at assessing relative risks. 

While there's a mushrooming field of psychology that details how our many cognitive biases make us poor natural statisticians, there are good reasons for our brains not to operate in strictly Bayesian ways. 

For one, our brains were designed in a time when relevant numbers rarely went above 150 (the number of people we were likely to encounter in life). 

More importantly, back when we all lived on the Savannah, genes would do well to err on the side of being overly-cautious. 

The example I gave Bernstein was how you wouldn't really care about sample size or the denominator of a trend when it came to lions: seeing one friend mauled by a lion would be evidence enough that avoiding lions was a good idea. But today I bumped into an xkcd comic that illustrates how, even today, we're more often better off not thinking like scientists or statisticians:


By the way, for one of the best overviews of how our illogical minds do a good job of simulating logic most of the time, take in Kathryn Schultz's Being Wrong.

recent research

Random pickings via Kevin Lewis' blog:

Sunday, June 10, 2012

recent research

This week via Kevin Lewis:

recent research

This week from Kevin Lewis' blog:

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Sunday morning PETA philosophizing

Another fascinating article suggests that humans became the world's top dogs in large part because of their co-evolution with actual dogs:
"Domesticating dogs clearly improves humans’ hunting success and efficiency—whether the game (or the dog) is large or small. The same must have been true in the Paleolithic. If Neandertals did not have domestic dogs and anatomically modern humans did, these hunting companions could have made all the difference in the modern human–Neandertal competition."
I've never been a proponent of animal-rights (I usually figure we should get human rights taken care of first), but if certain species co-evolved with us and are responsible for our survival and good fortune, you can kind of argue that those species are us. That is, if humans wouldn't exist without dogs, that makes our two species almost one meta-species. If that's the case, then dogs might deserve at least a few of our rights.