moody Americans

Last week, after I posted a graph suggesting that when unemployment rates go up presidential approval goes down, my understandably despondent friend Chris wondered if that meant Americans only like presidents who help them make more money to buy more stuff.

I don't think that's the case. People don't mind when their fortunes don't rise. They do get, however, get pissy when they see their fortunes fall.

At least, I recently ran across that argument in Jared Diamond's Collapse; historically neighboring nations don't go to war when times are bad, but they do take up arms when a period of economic growth is followed by economic decline. It's a theory, as another friend - Frauke - pointed out, that was made popular by James Davies in the 50's:

"Revolutions are most likely to occur when a prolonged period of objective economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal. People then subjectively fear that ground gained with great effort will be quite lost; their mood becomes revolutionary."

No one's revolting or going to war in the US, but the mood of Americans - as expressed by presidential approval - probably follows similar ups and downs. Much has been made recently of increasing income inequality in the US and of the social tensions that may result. But I don't think growing gaps between the rich and not-rich is enough to get Americans glowering at each other - it's only when combined with seeing jobs and paychecks decline that we get ticked off.

Two places you can look for evidence are Brazil and India. Brazil had one of the world's worst records on income disparity over the past decade, as measured by Gini, and yet its president (and now his new successor) was wildly popular. India's Gini is more moderate, but as this $1 Billion home in the middle of Mumbai's slums show, the gap between rich and poor is starkly visible. Like their Brazilian cousins, the mood in India is high. Why? Because like Brazil, they know their collective wealth and prestige is on the upswing.

Americans are seeing a different picture; while longterm forecasts of US decline are probably premature, when short spells of spiking unemployment occur - while Wall Street paychecks appear continue to bloom - it's enough to make the working classes think the fall is imminent. If Davies is to be believed, that should make us disgruntled indeed.