You can include in that group of confident "knowers" political pundits, experts, consultants and more and more the man on the street. We live in a time where people aren't only really damn confident about what's what today - but also about what the future will bring. Of course, people like Nassim Nicholas Taleb will tell you that reading the future is generally an utter waste of time. Philip Tetlock will add on that the more "expert" you are in an area, the more your predictions are likely to be way off.
That's why it was refreshing to hear military expert (and future politician?) Petraeus say he didn't know if we'd be wrapped up in Afghanistan by 2014.
From his interview with Stephanopoulos:
'“I think-no commander ever is going to come out and say, ‘I'm confident that we can do this.’ I think that you say that you assess that this is-- you believe this is, you know, a reasonable prospect and knowing how important it is-- that we have to do everything we can to increase the chances of that prospect,” the top commander in Afghanistan told me. “But again, I don't think there are any sure things in this kind of endeavor. And I wouldn't be honest with you and with the viewers if I didn't convey that.”'
Thank you for your honesty, General. We could use more of that these days.
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