In war we trust

Americans distrust government, more so today than since pollsters started tracking levels of trust back in the 60s.

There are countless academic and popular theories why Americans have such a dim view of their political leaders today. Most suggest a progressive decline in democracy - the rise of a 24/7 media culture dumbs down debate; a lack of campaign finance limits makes politicians beholden to special interests; 60s social welfare culture has made the state self-perpetually bloated; extreme partisanship has politicians more interested in winning than in solving problems, etc.

Two profs from Vanderbilt and University of Illinois, however, think things haven't really changed that much since the 60s. According to a paper by Marc Hetherington and Thomas Rudolph, government's doing as well (or poorly) as it ever has and citizens' views of government hasn't really changed over the decades.

So how do they explain the apparent decline in trust over the years? It's a question of salience - that is, what Americans happen to think is the most important issue at any given time.

As you might imagine, we tend to pay more attention to things that worry us. So when the economy is fine but we're worried about nuclear war with Russia, we think international issues are most pressing. But if inflation is spiking and jobs are thinning out, we'll turn our focus onto the economy.

Concerns about international vs. domestic troubles do not, however, have the same effect on our trust in government. Fear of foreign threats increases our faith in the state, while worries about problems at home decreases our trust. The reverse is also true - a peaceful globe makes us less beholden to our state and a booming economy keeps us content with government - but the effect is not as strong. That leaves us with the following picture:

When attention on the economy or crime increases (the 70s and early 90s), political trust decreases. Even more clearly, eyes on international issues (60s, mid-80s and 9/11) boosts confidence in government. Today, with 9/11 faded in our memories and the economy teetering on double-dip recession, it makes sense that we distrust government more than ever.